With less than two weeks to go to the season’s first race and the two main pre-season tests behind us, things are not as clear as you might have expected.
Of course, testing ultimately reveals nothing, as every team and rider concentrates on different things while developing the bike. So lap times might tell a story, but they’re not necessarily a clear picture. Having said that, the cream inevitably rises to the top, and, predictably, Ducati was the bike everyone was chasing.
But it’s not as simple as that. Despite the Ducati GP25 being in existence, both Marquez and Bagnaia looked to be favouring last year’s GP24 engine and chassis during testing, which is not entirely surprising given its level of performance and superiority over the rest of the field in 2024.
Don’t forget also, that whatever engine is homologated for 2025 will also have to be used in 2026 as well, with no development allowed, so Ducati’s decision to stick with a known quantity of an engine is hardly surprising. What this means, of course, is that Marc Marquez had only to get to grips with an already-developed chassis and engine, rather than trying to sort out whole new designs, which can only help his confidence for the season.
The prospect of another Ducati-dominated season shouldn’t necessarily fill us with enthusiasm but when has MotoGP been any different? Also, if the fight between Bagnaia and Marquez is anything like that between Bagnaia and Jorge Martin in 2024, then we should be in for another vintage year of racing, especially as Marquez is not one to sit back and defer to a teammate who has been with the team a long time and had great success.
It would just be nice to have a couple of other manufacturers getting a sniff of a podium or race win, although, on the sketchy evidence of testing, neither Yamaha nor Honda are in a position to challenge at the front and KTM might be able to if the conditions are right, but consistently challenge, even with Acosta on board? As much as I’d like to see it, I’m not sure.
Talking of Martin, he was unfortunate enough to suffer a nasty, bone-fracturing high side after only 13 laps on the Aprilia in the first test of 2025, meaning that he missed the second test and will therefore enter the 2025 season rather unprepared, on a bike that is completely different to the Ducati GP24. The Aprilia RS-GP is a proven race winner but it hasn’t been as consistent as the Ducati. Could Martin be that magical and elusive “right rider on the right bike at the right time,” that brings success to Aprilia? Aprilia team manager Paolo Bonora admitted that the first four races of the season will be extended tests for Martin, having missed so much of the pre-season testing. That means he’ll be playing catch-up for the first two or three races but we know he’s got the pace if the Aprilia can match his talent.
There are a lot of new rider/team combinations this year, even if some teams have remained stable. The factory Yamaha and Honda teams retain the same rider line-up as in 2024 but elsewhere, it is all changed.
After being snubbed by Ducati, Enea Bastiannini moved to Tech3 KTM but he’s been struggling to adapt to the KTM whilst trying to unlearn how he rode the Ducati. Maverick Viñales, Bastiannini’s teammate, is also citing a completely different braking style to get the best out of the front end of the KTM. In the factory KTM squad, Pedro Acosta was again working his magic and was the fastest of the four KTMs, ending the test fourth overall.
Jack Miller definitely likes the front-end grip of the Yamaha, confirming what Quartararo has been saying all along. The Yamaha, like the Honda, just needs more power, although would that upset the balance of the chassis? It’s not a case of simply bolting in the rumoured V4 as that will necessitate a whole new chassis, designed around the power and torque characteristics of a V4 configuration. With the engine freeze, is it likely that Yamaha will take a chance on the new V4 for 2025, as untried as it is, or will the team wait until 2027 to bring it in? That could mean a further two years of pain and non-results at a time when they can least afford it.
Yamaha will at least have four bikes on the grid this year, with Pramac making the shock transfer to the Japanese team from Ducati at the end of 2024, despite having won the title on the Italian machine. This added rider input will likely only have an effect from 2027 when the new rules are introduced, but who knows how it will pan out through 2025 and 2026? The engine development freeze will negate some of the advantages of having four riders but the chassis might benefit.
Elsewhere, Franco Morbidelli has headed to the Pertamina Enduro VR46 squad, although he remains on Ducati machinery. Miguel Oliveira joins Miller at Pramac Yamaha, Marco Bezzecchi joins Martin at the factory Aprilia squad, and rookies Fermin Aldeguer, Ai Ogura and Somkiat Chantra make their MotoGP debut at Gresini (Ducati), Trackhouse (Aprilia) and LCR Honda respectively.
Let’s face it, though: for all the flurry of news and conjecture around pre-season testing, the season really begins when the pit lane lights turn green for the first practice session at the first GP which, this year, is set to be in Thailand on the 28th February. Only then will we have a proper idea of the pecking order and, even if the odds favour Bagnaia and Marquez being at the front, it is by no means a foregone conclusion.
