Boy, that was nerve-racking! Wet races are often a case of “last-man-standing”, which is fine when there’s not a championship on the line, but when the two main protagonists are battling it out at the front end, every point counts. Then you’re watching proceedings through slitted eyes, just waiting for one or the other to throw it all away.
As it was, it was Marc Marquez who blinked first and actually did Jorge Martin a favour by gifting him valuable points; Martin was unlikely to catch Marquez for second place but Marquez falling off meant that Bagnaia out front only gained five points on Martin, the gap now being 17 points heading into the last two races. Marquez did the same for Martin at the last race by beating both Martin and Bagnaia into second and third place respectively. If Martin can’t win, then he wants Marquez to take places away from Bagnaia as much as possible.
The Thai Main race was largely uneventful, but the nerves were highly strung all the same. Martin made a blinding getaway to lead into the first corner and even pulled out almost a second on Bagnaia. But then it all went horribly wrong as Martin ran wide and let both Bagnaia and Marquez through.
For a while, Marquez really pushed Bagnaia and Martin wasn’t able to match their pace, his confidence obviously knocked. Marquez tried for the lead but couldn’t make it stick and then he lost the front and, despite his efforts to save it using his knee, the kerb put paid to that effort and he was down. It was slow speed and he remounted to finish in the points but that was his championship challenge over; after Bagnaia’s victory and Martin’s second place, only those two riders remained in contention for the title.
The KTMs made a good showing, both Miller and Binder going well, Miller actually occupying a podium position for a while, the conditions negating some of the advantages the Ducatis have. Binder was close behind in fourth but they reckoned without Pedro Acosta who got by Binder and then, on the penultimate lap, toughed it out with Miller for a few corners before prevailing to take the final podium place. Miller’s woes weren’t over as he lost fourth place to DiGiannantonio on the last lap.
If KTM can give him the bike he wants, then Acosta has to be reckoned a championship challenger in 2025; for all his crashes in 2024 – including one in the Thailand Sprint race – he has consistently been the rider to get the best out of the KTM and take the fight to Ducati. If he’s crashed a lot, then it’s because he has been overriding the KTM in order to stay in touch.
Is a move to a factory team a guarantee of success? There have been many examples over the years of a rider getting onto factory equipment after showing promise on a satellite bike, only to fail miserably when promoted. Somehow, I can’t see Acosta being one of those. And let’s not forget that Binder might well benefit from Acosta’s input. Jack Miller is no slouch at testing and development; he has borne the brunt of race weekend development of the RC16 this year, which has compromised his results on more than one occasion. Acosta, however, might just be that one-in-a-million chance of the right rider on the right bike at the right time. If the development direction suits Binder, then he can challenge as well.
The opposite is also true – that the bike won’t suit Acosta and he’ll spend a year mired in the midfield, at best. But can you really see that happening? I can’t. Is it realistic to think that he might have already had a hand in the configuration of the 2025 machine? KTM has staked a lot on Acosta so it would make sense to maximise his potential.
In Australia, we had the top six Main race positions filled by Ducati, the first time for a single manufacturer since 1997. The Sprint race doesn’t count towards official statistics but the Thailand Sprint race finishing order had Ducatis in the top eight positions. Whichever way you view that, positively or negatively, you have to admit that it’s a bloody impressive achievement that’s never been seen in either 500cc or MotoGP racing. A changing of the guard is always expected but the way that Ducati has swept aside both Honda and Yamaha in such a dominant manner and largely dismissed Aprilia and KTM is incredible. Ducati will be beaten at some point in the future, perhaps in 2027 when the new rules come in, but it’s hard to see Honda, Yamaha, Aprilia or KTM getting their acts together in time to beat Ducati consistently as long as the current rules are in force.
The dominance this year has been total. Seventeen out of eighteen Main race victories so far; Bagnaia has nine, Marquez four, Martin three, Bastiannini two and Viñales one. Of 54 Main race podiums, Ducati has taken 47, Acosta has five, Binder and Viñales one apiece. Martin has scored 28 podiums, and it is that consistency that has put him where he is – not ahead enough to relax, but ahead all the same.
To win the title, if Bagnaia wins all four remaining races (two Sprint and two Main races) Martin has to simply finish second each time. Bagnaia would net 74 points and Martin 58, giving Martin the title by one point when taking his 17-point advantage at the time of writing. If it’s a points tie, Bagnaia would take the title thanks to his Main race win tally. Whichever way you slice it, it’s going down to the wire, unless Bagnaia crashes out of both races in Malaysia and Martin can inflict damage by finishing on the podium in both races. Not likely, you’d have to say, but then both protagonists have had their fair share of crashes at inopportune moments this year.
A glimpse into the mind of a MotoGP rider was given by Martin after the Sprint race, in which he finished second, ahead of Bagnaia but behind Bastiannini. He kept flirting with track limits, clearly going too wide on two occasions; a third would mean a long-lap penalty. Martin knew exactly what he could get away with and used that to his advantage. What appeared to be a third infringement was deemed not to be so by race direction as the sensors had not been triggered but that was surely more by luck than judgement. In any case, Martin had used the rules to his advantage, flirting with danger while wrestling a 300bhp monster as fast as it could possibly go – and faster than it wanted to go on occasions.
Another race weekend this weekend, the penultimate round. Then it’s two weeks to the season finale at Valencia. Can your nerves stand it? Not sure mine can!
