Chance is a fickle mistress. When Brad Binder rolled the dice at the Red Bull Ring in 2021, opting to stay out on slicks when every other rider dived into the pits to change bikes as the rain came pouring down, for the last three or four laps he was dancing on the precipice of disaster but, somehow, held on to win the race.
It could easily have gone the other way and he would have been branded a fool for taking such a chance. But he won and the victory was heralded as a genius move. Marc Marquez tried staying on slicks when it started to rain in Aragon seven years earlier and came up short. Such are the infinitesimal lines between victory and disaster.
At the start of the Main race in Misano, there were drops of rain falling but the race got underway with every rider starting on slicks. Then it began to rain harder, to the point where it was a question of when, not if, the riders would come in to change bikes.
Jorge Martin obviously thought the time was right to change to wet tyres, after having a couple of moments, but what he was thinking as he peeled into pit lane, only to watch every other rider stream past onto the pit straight, very obviously not following him in, can only be guessed; it was either “shit, I’ve just lost the race,” or “I’ve timed this perfectly.”
We now know that it was the wrong move; ace to twit in the split second it took him to make the decision. But it was a gamble that had to be made, either way; stay out or come in. Obviously, he was hoping for the genius move but, this time, it wasn’t to be, especially as he had to come in again to change back to slicks.
“I was quite comfortable, but it started raining heavily in sectors one, two, and three. For this reason, I decided to change bikes,” Martin said. “Yeah, for sure, rolling the dice maybe sometimes is not the best choice when you are battling for a championship,” he continued.
It’s easy to be wise after the event, but what many commentators said after the race is that Martin should have taken notice of what local boy Bagnaia was doing and copied him. Bagnaia later said that he could tell that the rain wasn’t going to be serious by the smell of the damp track and air, which was different to Thursday when it rained heavily; he knew on race day the rain wasn’t going to get any worse. Teammate Bastiannini – another local rider – thought the same, and they both finished on the podium.
Martin concluded; ”So next time I won’t do it. I will stick to Pecco’s decision and do the same! I’ve learned my lesson, and now it’s time to look ahead.”
At one point, the riders were so unsure about the conditions that there was a whole gaggle of them running nose to tail, tip-toeing around, including Bagnaia, Marquez, Binder, Miller, Bastiannini, etc. It was chaos for a while before order was restored and, when it was, we had Bagnaia and Marc Marquez at the front, which soon became Marquez ahead of Bagnaia. Marquez showed last weekend how good he is with slippery track conditions and he did it again this week. Every now and again, it would start spitting with rain, prompting fears that it would continue and force the riders to change bikes but it never developed beyond a few spots and, eventually, it was clear that Bagnaia had no answer to Marquez’ pace; either that or discretion took the upper hand and he settled for a safe second place, even though Bastiannini was looking threatening in third place at one point.
As it was, Marquez rode a masterful race to take his second win in a row; not something that anyone would have predicted after qualifying, with Marquez down in ninth, or after the Sprint race, in which Marquez finished fifth, nor did his faithful fans dare to dream that he could win consecutive races.
Another consequence of Marquez’ second victory in a row is that he now has to be considered a championship contender, being only 53 points off the championship lead. With a maximum of 37 points available at each race, it’s by no means impossible that Marquez – or even Bastiannini, given the right conditions and fate intervening – could spring a championship surprise. Sadly, Brad Binder, at 151 points off the top and despite good results in Misano – 7th Sprint and 4th Main races – might have to concede that the title is beyond his reach, especially with so many Ducatis in front of him at every race and the KTM GP16 definitely lacking compared to the Ducati GP24.
I wrote last week about the fact that this season would continue to be a yo-yo in terms of points between Bagnaia and Martin and the weekend at Misano proved that. A brilliant win by Martin in the Sprint race opened up the gap to Bagnaia to 23 points. By the end of Sunday’s main race, the points difference had swung back to a seven-point lead for Martin. More and more the signs are that the title race will go down to the wire; if Martin loses it again at the last gasp, it will be a hard pill to swallow.
As is becoming a tradition now, Honda had another terrible weekend to endure. Joan Mir and Luca Marini took no part in the race proceedings, both riders suffering from illness and preferring to be fit for the test taking place at Misano directly after the race. Then came the possibly not-unexpected announcement that long-time sponsor Repsol would be ending the relationship that has lasted for so long and been so successful; eleven team titles, 15 rider titles with the likes of Doohan, Criville, Rossi, Hayden, Stoner and Marquez – 183 race wins in total.
Of course, it’s inconceivable that HRC won’t be able to pull in a replacement main sponsor but maybe the top brass were thinking that things couldn’t sink any lower in 2024 and that the only way was up! Surely now this is rock-bottom?
A further consequence of Martin’s dive into the pits to change bikes is that it has re-opened the discussion about pit-to-bike radio, following in the footsteps of four-wheeled motorsport.
Marc Marquez rather sat on the fence, saying it would be good for the show but questioned the pit wall personnel’s ability to judge the track conditions. “Those conditions, specifically the conditions from today, the rider decides (what is best) because even we don’t know (fully) and it’s impossible that the team knows how the race track is,” he said.
“So, the rider decides by feeling. Of course, if it’s from wet to dry, then that team communication can be useful because they can say to you if somebody is faster, time to come in, time to stay out. But when it’s from dry to wet, riders always decide. “For the show? Yes, I’m in favour. For the essence of the sport? No. But we are here for the show sometimes. So, it will be more interesting for the people at home.”
Bagnaia took a firmer line against the idea; “It depends on the way they do, how they develop this kind of thing. “But we already have every input possible around the track, on the pit board and on our dashboard. So, I’m not in favour.”
Enea Bastianini, third in the Main race, agreed with Marquez and Bagnaia, pointing out that the technology for the pit wall to accurately judge track conditions would need to be incredibly advanced to make it plausible. “For this, it depends on one rider to another on what’s happening during that situation, if the feeling is good or not,” he said. “I think the guys from the team won’t say very well what the real condition is, only we can say this. We would have to be very technological to have more information compared to us on the bike.”
Inevitably, Dorna will make its own mind up about the situation, seemingly regardless of what the riders want, although they will be consulted, of course. Personally, I’d prefer to see riders rolling the dice based on their gut instincts and intimate knowledge of the riding conditions, the only information they receive being from the pit wall once a lap. Start giving them too much information and we’ll get situations like in Formula 1 where the drivers are being almost told how to drive, when to push, who to let past, who to overtake; it’s becoming racing by numbers, the numbers being decided by the team personnel, not the driver and that is ruining the fact that it is man and machine, not team and machine, who are racing. Mistakes might be galling, but they are an indivisible element of racing and, let’s face it, they are what makes the racing so exciting and unpredictable.
We’ll be back at Misano in two weeks’ time for the next round of the championship, this track substituting for the abandoned Indian round.
