Many commentators will have you believe that a Marc Marquez victory was inevitable in 2024; a case of when not if. Given the competitive state of Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin on their 2024 Ducatis, however, was that more wishful thinking than a realistic prediction?
Sports commentators are adept at fanning flames when there are none there to fan; it’s a consequence of modern motorsport where there is frequently nothing to talk about when it comes to on-track action, so wild predictions are made to spice up the broadcast or their own written articles.
In the case of a Marc Marquez victory, while there was a desire to see him back on the top step of the podium, and the talent and drive to do so was clearly still there despite three painful years of rehabilitation and an under-performing Honda, the possibility of him winning again didn’t seem so far-fetched; it wasn’t just commentators’ hyperbole. And so it has proved, in the most convincing manner possible.
Aragon is another of those circuits on the calendar where Marquez has won multiple times. Not only that, but the conditions suited him to perfection; an anti-clockwise circuit with more left-hand corners than right and a slippery surface, enabling him to use all the weapons in his armoury. It’s also his home circuit, with the attendant huge support base willing him on. But surely none of those supporters would have dared to envisage a weekend of such utter dominance, the likes of which we haven’t seen often this season; fastest in all practice sessions, pole position by a ridiculous margin – just shy of one second – and victories in both Sprint and Main races by equally huge margins – 2.9 seconds and 4.7 seconds respectively. Only Bagnaia and Viñales have completed the triple crown of pole and two race victories on the same weekend in 2024, but neither of them topped every timed practice session.
Bagnaia effectively ruled himself out of running with Marquez at the head of the field thanks to appalling starts in both races, his Ducati GP24 snaking from side to side and robbing him of all acceleration. He blamed it on being on the dirty part of the track but it seemed as if many riders struggled, no matter which side of the track they were starting on. It’s unlikely Bagnaia would have had any answer to Marquez’ pace had his start been better, having no confidence in his tyres, especially the front, during the race.
Then, there was the horrible incident between him and Alex Marquez, which saw Bagnaia sliding off the race track with a Ducati on top of him and being rolled underneath it as they hit the gravel. That both Bagnaia and Marquez walked away was a miracle and a testament to modern airbag technology and protection. Rightly, the stewards declared it a racing incident, but the upshot of it was Jorge Martin, who finished both races in second place – his fifth and sixth consecutive second place – taking a 23-point lead in the championship table.
Ducati are going to have to start managing the situation if Bagnaia is to retain the title. With so many Ducatis on the grid and with them being so dominant, it is inevitable that some of them are going to be fighting over the same piece of tarmac at some point and it’s more than likely that Martin or Bagnaia will be involved which could be catastrophic for their championship hopes. Aragon was Bagnaia’s worst-scoring weekend since the beginning of the 2023 season. He won’t want – nor can he afford – to have that happen again.
Given the yo-yo effect at the top of the championship table, it is unlikely that Martin will retain this advantage for long and, increasingly, it looks as if we really are going to have a fight to the wire. Imagine Ducati’s faces if Martin takes the number one plate to Aprilia in 2025, having won the title on a Ducati!
It was a good weekend for Spanish MotoGP fans, as both podiums were filled with the same three Spanish riders; the legend, the pretender to the throne and the mesmerising rookie. If the racing – at the head of the field, at least – wasn’t vintage, it is doubtful that any Spanish fan cared as their hero shook off 1043 days without a victory in the most dominant fashion possible.
Behind the leading trio – who no doubt all had to overcome boredom and wandering attention while maintaining fierce concentration on the treacherous newly laid surface – there was the odd interesting moment. How about Fabio Quartararo fighting for a position with Bagnaia inside the top ten? That hasn’t happened since 2021.
Binder, Bastiannini and Alex Marquez – before his off – all had good races but couldn’t hold a candle to the leading pair, nor even Acosta in third. Binder especially had reason to celebrate after the Sprint race when he revealed that his start devices had failed to disengage for half of the first lap, meaning he rode with effectively no suspension for that time. With that in mind, sixth place was a good result.
But how about the losers? By that, I mean, of course, Aprilia, Yamaha and Honda. Aprilia flattered to deceive, getting all four bikes into Q2 for the first time but then failing to convert that into anything meaningful in either race. True, the Trackhouse riders finished fifth and eleventh in the Sprint race but Aleix Espargaro crashed out at turn one on the first lap of the Sprint, while Viñales finished dead last, 37 seconds behind Marc Marquez.
The Main race wasn’t much better for Aprilia, with Espargaro finishing in tenth place, Raul Fernandez in 16th and the other two failing to finish.
Of course, as bad as those results are, they are results that Honda can only dream of. Johann Zarco became the first Honda to make it directly into Q2 in 2024 but wasted that by crashing out early in the Sprint race, while the other Hondas could only manage 14th, 16th and 18th. The Main race wasn’t much more encouraging, 11th, 13th, 14th and 16th being all Honda could manage. What’s worse, is that both LCR Honda riders are ahead of the factory Repsol Honda riders in the championship table. Luca Marini has only one point to show for his efforts in 2024!
The fall from grace for Honda has been remarkable; 12 victories and six second places for Marquez in 2019, no victories in a truncated 2020 season, three victories in 2021, two podiums in 2022 and one podium in 2023, nothing in 2024 so far.
It does make you wonder why Joan Mir has signed up to ride for Honda for the next two years; he must know something the rest of us don’t. Of course, it is unthinkable that Honda will give up or don’t have the expertise and budget to make it happen but, realistically, it is only going to be 2027-onwards, when the new rules come in and everyone starts from a level playing field, that Honda will have its first proper chance to get back to the front. Don’t bet against it happening.
The same goes for Yamaha. Another not-great weekend, Quartararo’s efforts notwithstanding, but the likelihood of Yamaha pulling out of MotoGP, as has been predicted in some quarters, seems like nothing but scaremongering in the face of the news that Pramac has signed a seven-year deal to run Yamahas from 2025.
Disappointingly, MotoGP rights holders Dorna has stated that the two grid slots left by Suzuki following that manufacturer’s withdrawal will not be available to BMW, should that marque decide to enter MotoGP in 2027. Instead, BMW would have to pair with an existing team, such as LCR or Gresini, both of whom are committed to Honda and Ducati respectively. Quite why the grid can’t be expanded back to 24 bikes is a mystery no one has deciphered yet but Dorna remains resolute.
In other news away from the racing, it was announced that both Ai Ogura and Somkiat Chantra will step up from Moto2 to ride in MotoGP in 2025, with Trackhouse Racing Aprilia and LCR Honda respectively. Along with Fermin Aldeguer, that makes a significant number of riders being promoted to the Premier class, possibly at the expense of some established MotoGP riders. Jack Miller, for one, has no seat in MotoGP for 2025 as yet, although there are rumours that he might head to Pramac Yamaha. It would be sad to see him leave the MotoGP paddock but no one ever said anything was fair in top-class motorsport.
